AGP Executive Report

Cabo Delgado Security & Resources: A new look at how Cabo Delgado’s ruby wealth and foreign-controlled mining helped fuel recruitment for the insurg, tying grievances over natural resources to the rise of Al‑Shabab. Industrial Transport & Manufacturing: Mozambique approved an international tender for a private partner to build the country’s first vehicle assembly plant under a public-private partnership, aiming to cut fleet costs and boost local manufacturing. Gas & Macroeconomic Impact: Standard Bank forecasts ExxonMobil’s Mozambique LNG project could lift the economy by over 4% annually after production starts, but timelines hinge on stability in the north. Mining Policy: Reuters reports Mozambique is tightening mining rules with a 15% state stake and push for more local processing. Trade & Industry Links: Mozambique’s exports to Poland hit $100m in 2024, with coal, cashew nuts and tobacco leading, and business groups urging deeper industrial partnerships. EU Financing: Mozambique and the EU signed agreements worth €178m for energy access, digital transformation, environmental and social sustainability, including €40m for energy. Agriculture & Jobs Focus: The World Bank says Southern Africa’s jobs agenda will prioritize agriculture, local medical manufacturing and tourism, with Mozambique highlighted. Food Inflation Watch: S&P Global warns food prices could become a key driver of inflation across emerging markets as fertiliser and transport costs rise. Regional Xenophobia Spillover: South Africa’s xenophobic violence continues to trigger repatriations across the region, including Mozambicans, raising risks for labour and business continuity.

Transport & Forests: AfDB, JICA and World Bank-funded upgrades along Mozambique’s Nacala Corridor are linked to accelerating deforestation since 2022, with critics saying mitigation is weak. Tourism Payments: Mozambique’s tourism ministry signed a Visa MoU with Angola to speed card payments across hotels, travel agencies and online platforms. Mining Policy: Mozambique tightened mining rules with a 15% state stake in all ventures and local mineral processing requirements, aiming to capture more value from strategic resources like graphite. Gas & Industry Outlook: Standard Bank forecasts Exxon’s Mozambique gas project could lift the economy by 4% a year, but progress depends on security in the north. Industrialisation Push: Mozambique approved an international tender for a public-private vehicle assembly plant to cut transport costs and build local manufacturing capacity. EU Financing: Mozambique and the EU signed €178m in agreements for energy access, green digital education, digital transformation, and agriculture/social sustainability. Regional Trade: Mozambique exports to Poland hit $100m in 2024, led by coal, cashew nuts and tobacco, with calls for more factories and jobs. Border Efficiency: Zimbabwe plans to modernise border posts to decongest crossings and streamline trade with Malawi and Mozambique. Food Inflation Risk: A Mozambican economist warns food inflation could reach 12% amid monetary and credit misalignment, with agriculture underfunded. Security & Investment: President Chapo says peace and security are prerequisites for new investment, highlighting LNG, hydropower and a push for broader sectors like agriculture and logistics.

Mozambique Mining Reform: President Daniel Chapo signed a law requiring 15% state ownership in all mining ventures and local mineral processing, tightening control as battery-material demand rises. LNG & Industrial Jobs: Standard Bank forecasts ExxonMobil’s Mozambique gas project could lift the economy by over 4% a year, though timelines hinge on stability in Cabo Delgado. FLNG Engineering Contracts: Mozambique Rovuma Venture awarded Technip Energies an EPCIC role for the Coral Norte FLNG project, with JGC and Samsung Heavy Industries supplying key engineering and construction work. Transport & Industrialisation Push: Mozambique approved an international tender to select a private partner for the country’s first vehicle assembly plant under a public-private partnership, aiming to cut bus costs and boost domestic manufacturing. Trade & Investment Links: Mozambique’s exports to Poland hit $100m in 2024, led by coal, cashew nuts and tobacco, with business groups urging deeper industrial partnerships. EU Financing for Development: Mozambique and the EU signed agreements totalling €178m for energy access, green digital education, digital transformation, and agriculture and social sustainability. Regional Logistics: Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique moved to modernise border posts and harmonise corridor rules to reduce delays and costs. Macroeconomic Pressure: A Mozambican economist warned food inflation could reach 12% amid credit constraints and financing misalignment, especially for agriculture.

Mozambique LNG Build-Out: Mozambique Rovuma Venture has awarded Technip Energies an EPCIC contract for the Coral Norte FLNG project offshore Cabo Delgado, with JGC France and Samsung Heavy Industries covering topside and hull work; the 3.6 mtpa LNG unit is designed to lift the Coral hub to 7 mtpa, reinforcing Mozambique’s push into a bigger regional gas market. Regional Energy Spillover: A Standard Bank-backed study says Rovuma LNG could catalyse domestic gas use and a wider Southern Africa LNG ecosystem, supporting industrialisation beyond exports. Conservation vs Industry Tension: A Niassa Special Reserve dispute is framed as part of a broader shift where protected areas are increasingly treated as obstacles to development and local control, raising questions about how Mozambique balances wildlife protection with mining and livelihoods. Illegal Trade Exposed: Court cases point to a pipeline of rhino horn shipments into China, with Mozambique and South Africa highlighted as key source and transit points. Construction Supply Chain: AMAL Industries in Beira has started a block-bottom valve cement bag unit, aiming to cut import dependence and strengthen local packaging for Mozambique’s construction sector. Cross-Border Logistics: Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique launched a drive to remove bottlenecks on regional transport corridors, targeting border delays, fragmented rules and infrastructure gaps that raise transit costs. South Africa Migration Shock (Mozambique angle): Mozambique reported nine citizens killed in xenophobic violence in South Africa and said hundreds have been repatriated amid escalating anti-foreigner attacks. Humanitarian Supply Disruption: UNICEF warns that Middle East conflict is disrupting shipping lanes and driving up logistics costs, slowing delivery of lifesaving supplies for children worldwide.

Mozambique LNG & Construction: Technip Energies, with JGC and Samsung Heavy Industries, has won an EPCIC contract for the Coral Norte floating LNG project offshore Mozambique, a major award worth over €1bn when combined with earlier scopes; Coral Norte is set to produce about 3.6 mtpa of LNG and, with Coral Sul, lift the Coral hub to around 7 mtpa, reinforcing Mozambique’s push into a larger regional gas industry. Industrial Packaging: AMAL Industries in Beira has started operations of a new block-bottom valve cement bag unit, aiming to strengthen local supply chains, support construction demand, and cut reliance on imported packaging. Regional Trade Logistics: Zimbabwe, Malawi and Mozambique have launched a joint drive in Harare to remove bottlenecks on regional transport corridors, targeting border delays, regulatory fragmentation and infrastructure constraints that raise transit times and costs. Energy Policy Context: Standard Bank-backed analysis says Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG could catalyse domestic and regional gas use and industrialisation, potentially adding about $11bn annually to GDP once operational. Governance & Security Spillover: Mozambique-linked xenophobia fallout continues to ripple regionally, with Mozambique calling out attacks on its citizens in South Africa and local political leaders urging Mozambique to prepare for returnees through industrialising agriculture and skills.

Coral Norte LNG Build-Out: Technip Energies has landed a major EPCIC role on Mozambique’s Coral Norte FLNG, in partnership with JGC and Samsung Heavy, with the wider Coral Norte package valued at over €1bn and targeting ~3.6 mtpa LNG offshore Cabo Delgado. Rovuma LNG Economics: Standard Bank says Rovuma LNG could add about $11bn a year to Mozambique’s GDP, lift fiscal revenues and jobs, and help anchor a broader domestic and regional gas industry as first gas is pencilled in around 2030. Gas Pricing Pressure in the Region: South Africa’s Nersa is weighing caps on gas price hikes to protect industry users as Mozambique-linked supply risks peak toward the “gas cliff” period. Investment Interest: American investors met President Daniel Chapo to explore deals in energy, tourism, infrastructure and financing—signalling renewed push into Mozambique’s strategic sectors. Policy Response to Xenophobia Spillovers: Mozambique’s opposition MDM calls for faster industrialisation of agriculture, water management and stronger technical education amid Mozambicans being repatriated from South Africa after xenophobic violence. Wildlife Conservation Win: Peace Parks Foundation reports progress at Zinave National Park after long-term investment, including the translocation of nine white rhinos and moves toward tourism sustainability. Public Health & Research: A new Africa-wide dengue vaccine initiative (DENSTAR) launched with partners including KNUST, aiming to speed trials and regulatory approval across sub-Saharan Africa.

LNG Investment Push: Standard Bank says Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG could add about $11bn a year to GDP, with first gas targeted around 2030 after delays linked to Cabo Delgado, and projects annual LNG output of ~18 mtpa. FLNG Contracting: Technip Energies won an EPCIC role on Eni-led Coral Norte FLNG offshore Mozambique, a project designed for ~3.6 mtpa LNG and meant to double the Coral hub to 7 mtpa. Local Industry Linkages: Mozambique’s energy minister urged national firms to plug into gas value chains, citing training for thousands of Mozambicans and hundreds of SMEs during construction and operations. Climate-Smart Fisheries: Mozambique is positioning its fisheries as a “blue economy” growth engine, expanding community co-management to protect ecosystems and stabilize coastal livelihoods. Health & Research: KNUST is a key partner in the EU-funded DENSTAR consortium launching a €11.09m dengue vaccine trial programme for sub-Saharan Africa. Regional Shock Context: Storms are hitting southern Africa more often, raising risks for infrastructure and supply chains that underpin industry and trade.

Gas Value-Chain Push: Mozambique’s Mineral Resources and Energy minister urged national firms to plug into gas project value chains, citing training for 15,734 Mozambicans and support for hundreds of SMEs alongside gas-to-energy and mobility plans. Agro-Industry Buildout: President Daniel Chapo inaugurated a Manica slaughterhouse and sausage factory (Planalto Fresh Produce Agro-industrial Complex) worth 200 million meticais, targeting local pork supply and import reduction while calling for more farm output to cut dependence amid fuel and cost pressures. Mining Security: South Africa arrested a 35-year-old Mozambican near Agnes Mine during Operation Vala Umgodi for ammunition possession, with authorities also seizing abandoned explosives and hundreds of rounds. Trade & Infrastructure Ties: China and Mozambique marked a decade of strategic cooperation, highlighting transport and water projects such as the Maputo-Katembe Bridge and expanded water supply. Regional Shock on Food Costs: UN agencies warned that Strait of Hormuz disruptions are feeding into higher transport and fuel costs, worsening hunger risks across Africa—an indirect pressure point for Mozambique’s food and logistics costs. Energy Cooperation Signals: Sweden said it will deepen Mozambique cooperation in energy and mining, alongside human resources and inclusive growth. Migration Turmoil Spillover: South Africa’s renewed anti-immigrant crackdown has triggered displacement and repatriations involving Mozambicans, raising business and labour uncertainty across the region.

Mozambique–China Infrastructure: Mozambique marked 10 years of China cooperation with visible upgrades, including the Maputo–Katembe Bridge and new water and sanitation projects that are boosting local services and livelihoods. Agro-Industry Push: President Daniel Chapo inaugurated a Manica slaughterhouse and sausage factory (Planalto Fresh Produce Agro-industrial Complex), aiming to cut pork imports and spur jobs while urging more local food production to reduce dependence amid the fuel-driven cost squeeze. Mining Governance: Mozambique is tightening mining rules with a 15% state stake requirement and moves toward more local processing, as the country seeks to capture more value from graphite and other minerals. Regional Water Security: Shared river management is getting a stronger policy footing as ministers meet under INMACOM to coordinate Incomati and Maputo basin governance, linking water cooperation to agriculture, energy and climate resilience. Security & Mining Enforcement: South African police arrested a Mozambican national near Agnes Mine for unlawful ammunition possession during Operation Vala Umgodi, alongside seizures of explosives and rounds—another sign of crackdowns on illegal mining networks. South Africa Xenophobia Spillover: Mozambique reported deaths of its citizens amid xenophobic attacks in South Africa, while repatriation efforts moved hundreds of Mozambicans home and more were in transit. ICT & Services Export Context: Mozambique’s wider regional push for exportable services echoes in the region’s ICT growth stories, including Malawi’s scaling of digital exports—relevant for Mozambique’s own industrial diversification agenda.

Mozambique–China Development: Mozambique marked the 10th anniversary of its strategic partnership with China with visible progress in infrastructure and services, including the Maputo-Katembe Bridge and new water and sanitation projects that are improving daily living in Maputo and Tete. Mozambique Mining Policy: Mozambique moved to tighten state control over mining by taking a 15% stake in domestic ventures and pushing for local processing, echoing a wider regional push to capture more value from critical minerals. Cabo Delgado LNG Finance Scrutiny: In South Africa, Absa shareholders questioned the bank’s financing of TotalEnergies’ resumed $20bn LNG project in Cabo Delgado amid human-rights concerns, keeping Mozambique-linked energy investment under a sharper ESG spotlight. Regional Energy Linkages: Eskom signed heads of agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal to secure LNG infrastructure for Richards Bay gas-to-power, with Mozambique gas supply expected to decline—raising the stakes for regional gas and power planning. Trade and Logistics Context: UNICEF warned that Middle East-linked transport disruptions are driving up shipping costs and delaying aid deliveries, a reminder of how logistics shocks can ripple into costs across Africa. Tech Services Expansion: Smart Hands Africa expanded its Supermicro services partnership across multiple African markets including Mozambique, supporting installation, maintenance and break-fix capacity for data-centre and enterprise infrastructure.

Mozambique Mining Policy: Mozambique moves to tighten state control over minerals, taking a 15% stake in domestic mining ventures and pushing local processing by restricting exports of non-processed resources, a bid to capture more value from graphite and other battery- and electronics-linked commodities. Regional Energy Deals: South Africa’s Eskom signs heads of agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal to secure LNG import and gas-to-power infrastructure for the Richards Bay project, aiming to strengthen energy security and jobs as Mozambique gas supply faces decline. Humanitarian Logistics: UNICEF warns Middle East-linked transport disruptions are raising shipping and air-cargo costs, slowing aid deliveries and squeezing budgets for children, with delivery times extended via longer sea routes around the Cape. Cross-Border Migration Pressure: Xenophobic violence in South Africa triggers more repatriation demand, with Nigeria reporting over 1,000 citizens registering for voluntary return amid safety concerns. ICT Exports Push: Malawi’s Sparc Systems unveils a roadmap to scale ICT services exports across Africa, highlighting growing foreign-currency inflows from digital work. Tech Services Expansion: Smart Hands Africa becomes an authorised Supermicro services partner, expanding post-sales support across multiple African markets including Mozambique.

Mozambique Mining Overhaul: President Daniel Chapo has signed new mining rules requiring the state to take a minimum 15% free, non-dilutable stake in all mining ventures and pushing local processing by restricting exports of unprocessed or semi-processed minerals unless firms get special authorisation. Cabo Delgado LNG Scrutiny: Mozambique’s LNG project in Cabo Delgado is back in the spotlight as Absa faces shareholder pressure over its financing of TotalEnergies’ $20bn LNG plant amid human-rights concerns. Energy Infrastructure Push: South Africa’s Eskom signed a heads of agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal to secure LNG import and regasification infrastructure for a planned 3,000MW gas-to-power project in Richards Bay, aiming to strengthen regional energy security as Mozambique gas supply declines. Regional Trade Drive: Namibia’s president urged businesses to use AfCFTA to expand beyond borders after a Swakopmund summit highlighted low intra-Africa trade and the need for industrial integration. Food and Manufacturing Costs: Tiger Brands warned consumers may face higher prices as fuel, logistics and input costs squeeze manufacturers, with some categories likely to see cost pass-through. Cross-border Tensions: Xenophobic violence in South Africa is driving more Nigerians to register for voluntary repatriation, with 1,094 applicants reported so far. Agribusiness Diversification: Zimbabwe’s GI-TOC flagged illicit arms and contraband risks, while Mozambique’s wider value-chain push is echoed by SADC’s push to build energy-transition mineral value chains locally.

Mozambique Mining Reform: Mozambique has enacted sweeping new mining rules requiring the state to hold at least a 15% free, non-dilutable stake in all mining ventures and pushing local processing by restricting exports of unprocessed and semi-processed minerals unless firms get special authorisation, with 10% of mining revenues earmarked for a local development fund. Regional Energy & Power: Mozambique’s role in the Southern African grid remains in focus as South Africa moves to secure LNG-to-power momentum, signing agreements tied to the Richards Bay gas-to-power push and highlighting cross-border energy security needs. Tech & Infrastructure Services: Smart Hands Africa expanded its footprint as an authorised Supermicro services partner, offering installation, break-fix support and maintenance across multiple African markets including Mozambique. Trade & Investment Signals: Indonesia is deepening Sub-Saharan trade partnerships, with Mozambique among the countries engaged as Indonesia seeks broader investment and market resilience. Industry Context: Across the region, policy debates on logistics and industrial competitiveness continue, with freight rail and port reforms in South Africa aimed at improving export flows.

Mining & Industrial Policy: Mozambique’s President Daniel Chapo signed a new mining law requiring 15% free, non-dilutable state ownership in all mining ventures and pushing local mineral processing, as graphite demand for batteries keeps rising. Critical Minerals & Value Addition: The rules also tighten export controls on unprocessed and semi-processed minerals unless firms get special authorization, aiming to capture more value from strategic resources. Regional Trade & Business Climate: Mozambique’s push for stronger mining control lands amid wider regional economic pressures, including South Africa’s logistics and power-sector strain that can affect cross-border supply chains. Skills for Industry: JA Africa and the ExxonMobil Foundation launched STEM Africa 2.0, adding 4,000 youth aged 14–17 across Africa (including Mozambique) with STEM and AI training tied to energy and innovation pathways. Energy & Infrastructure Context: South Africa’s freight logistics overhaul is moving toward private rail access and port expansion, highlighting how transport reforms can reshape regional industrial competitiveness. Agriculture Funding Pressure: Eric Opoku again warned that many African governments miss the 10% agriculture budget target, calling it a major brake on food security and rural development.

Mozambique Mining Policy: President Daniel Chapo signed a law requiring 15% free, non-dilutable state ownership in all mining ventures and local processing of minerals, as Mozambique pushes to capture more value from battery materials like graphite. Regional Trade & Security: Mozambique said five nationals were killed in South Africa xenophobic attacks, while South African police reported two deaths, as mobs forced foreigners into community halls along the south coast. Logistics Reform: South Africa’s freight overhaul is gaining momentum, with private rail and port upgrades on the agenda as policymakers push for more competition and faster movement of goods, including options via northern ports. Chinese Mining Scrutiny: Chinese nationals reportedly abandoned illegal Haroni River riverbed mining in Chimanimani after public exposure and regulatory pressure. Mozambique Business Support: The European Development Fund will disburse about €130m for Mozambique’s economic recovery, backing grants for business development, innovation, equipment and capacity expansion. Energy Context: South Africa’s electricity generation fell 9% year-on-year in April amid softer demand, even as the grid remains broadly stable.

LNG Investment Outlook: Mozambique’s Rovuma LNG project could add about $11bn to GDP annually, with Standard Bank projecting major jobs, tax and balance-of-payments gains as the ExxonMobil-led scheme nears final investment decisions. Critical Minerals Value Chains: The UN Economic Commission for Africa launched a €15m SADC project to build environmentally and socially responsible, decarbonised critical minerals value chains, with Mozambique among the implementing countries. Fisheries Governance: SADC reappointed the board of the Regional Fisheries Monitoring Control and Surveillance Centre in Maputo, keeping Stanley Ndara as chair and prioritising vessel registers and capacity to curb illegal fishing. Child Labour Crackdown: Manica reports 170+ minors still in illegal mining, despite two years of campaigns that rescued and reintegrated 500+ children into schools. Regional Security & Mobility: Mozambique condemned South Africa’s handling of xenophobic violence after reports of Mozambican deaths in Mossel Bay, while hundreds of citizens sought safety and repatriation. STEM Skills Push: ExxonMobil Foundation launched STEM Africa 2.0 to train 4,000 students (including in Mozambique) in STEM and AI skills for the digital economy.