AGP Executive Report

Mozambique LNG: TotalEnergies’ chair in Mozambique urged local firms to plug into the Mozambique LNG project’s value chain, as the $20bn scheme ramps up after the Palma restart and continues building local participation. Solar for LNG: TotalEnergies also launched a tender for a 7.1MW photovoltaic plant in Afungi to support the LNG megaproject’s construction and operations. Italy–Mozambique sustainability: Maputo signed a memorandum with Italy to advance agroforestry and sustainable development, covering biodiversity, forests, soils, water, climate action and circular economy support. Mozal power crunch: South32’s Mozal aluminium smelter in Mozambique remains excluded from Alcoa’s $4.1bn to $5.6bn aluminium asset deal, with Mozal still on care and maintenance after failed power negotiations—leaving one of Mozambique’s biggest industrial assets in limbo. Mozambique media integrity: MISA Mozambique flagged a sharp rise in online disinformation, recording 81 cases in 2025, with fabricated and manipulated political content driving fraud risks. Industrial reliability services: Pirtek Africa highlighted demand for fast hydraulic hose and fitting support across mining, agriculture, construction and manufacturing—aimed at cutting downtime from equipment failures.

Mozambique LNG: TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG push gets a boost as the consortium launches a tender for a 7.1MW photovoltaic plant in Afungi, aimed at powering the LNG megaproject in Cabo Delgado after construction resumed in 2025 following the Palma attack. Energy Investment: TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG chair, Jean-Pascal Clémençon, urged local firms to join the project’s value chain, citing thousands of Mozambicans already working on site and broad onshore/offshore opportunities. Agroforestry & Environment: Italy and Mozambique signed a memorandum in Maputo to expand cooperation on sustainable development under Mozambique’s National Strategy for Agroforestry Systems, covering biodiversity, forests, soils, water, climate action and capacity building. Media & Digital Risk: MISA Mozambique flagged worsening online disinformation, recording 81 cases in 2025 (up from 28 in 2024), with politics the main target—an issue that can spill into business confidence and public trust. Aluminium Deal Impact: Mozambique’s Mozal smelter is excluded from South32’s sale of most aluminium assets to Alcoa, leaving Mozal’s future ownership unresolved while the wider transaction reshapes regional aluminium supply chains.

Cabo Delgado LNG Solar Tender: TotalEnergies launched a tender for a 7.1MW photovoltaic plant in Afungi (Palma), tied to the Mozambique LNG project’s resumed works after the 2021 Palma attack. Cabo Delgado Security & Development: President Daniel Chapo urged stronger surveillance against Islamist terrorism and said peace is key to unlocking investment across roads, energy, water, agriculture, industry, health and education. Education Crackdown: Nampula authorities arrested seven teachers over alleged drug sales linked to a provincial crackdown. Mozambique Mining Under Pressure: Gemfields’ Mozambique Ruby Mine (MRM) faces escalating security risks as attacks on nearby villages forced short operational pauses; the company also reported results from its Trade Select ruby auction. Regional Trade & Logistics: Afreximbank said Nigeria’s intra-Africa trade rose to $9.02bn in 2025, boosted by AfCFTA tariff concessions and new logistics corridors—relevant for Mozambique’s import/export competitiveness. Aluminium Value-Chain Deals (Regional Impact): South32 agreed to sell most aluminium assets to Alcoa for up to $5.6bn, but Mozal in Mozambique remains on care and maintenance, keeping uncertainty around future output. South Africa Border Disruption Spillover: Kosi Bay traffic cleared after congestion from foreign nationals heading to Mozambique amid anti-immigration protests, a reminder of how regional mobility affects trade flows.

Cabo Delgado Security & Investment: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo urged stronger surveillance and renewed dialogue to tackle Islamist terrorism, saying peace is the condition for faster investment in roads, energy, water, agriculture, industry, health and education, while also moving to double Local Economic Development Fund support in every district. Education Crackdown: Mozambique authorities arrested seven teachers in Nampula over alleged involvement in drug sales at public schools, warning there will be no “truce” for wrongdoers and calling schools to stay spaces of learning. Regional Trade & Mobility: After hours of congestion at the Kosi Bay border post, traffic returned to normal as uMkhanyakude marches stayed peaceful, easing pressure from foreign nationals travelling to Mozambique amid anti-immigration demonstrations in South Africa. Mining Risk Signals: Gemfields’ CEO Sean Gilbertson will step down as the company flags escalating security and production challenges at its Mozambique ruby mine in Cabo Delgado, with recent auction revenue reported at $23.1m. Energy/Industry Context: A broader IEA update puts Nigeria at the top of Africa’s energy investment destinations in 2026, while highlighting a shift toward power, critical minerals and electrification—useful context for Mozambique’s industrial energy push.

Mozambique Mining & Industry: Gemfields says CEO Sean Gilbertson will step down on July 15, with CFO David Lovett taking over as interim CEO, as the company also flags security and production challenges at its 75%-owned Mozambique Ruby Mine; meanwhile, its first “Trade Select” ruby auction (June 22–29) pulled in $23.1m with 82 of 89 lots sold. Mozambique Energy & LNG: XRG and Eni sign deals to buy 32% stakes each in three upstream blocks in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta (feeding the Argentina LNG project), underscoring how LNG supply chains are being locked in upstream. Mozambique Infrastructure: Maputo’s Joaquim Chissano Avenue reopens after three years of drainage and sanitation works, improving sewerage for about 12,000 families and aiming to cut flooding and health risks. Mozambique Agriculture & Water: Flood damage to Gaza’s Lower Limpopo Irrigation Scheme is put at 23m meticais, with major crop losses, silted canals, damaged roads and pumping failures worsened by cable theft. Regional Labour & Trade Risk (SA-linked): South Africa’s June 30 anti-immigrant deadline is driving mass departures and supply-chain disruption, with Namibian truck operators pulling drivers and suspending deliveries over xenophobia fears. Regional Corporate Restructuring: BAT warns of further job cuts in South Africa as it shifts more roles into an AI-driven productivity push, after ending local tobacco production.

Infrastructure & Flood Resilience: Maputo’s Joaquim Chissano Avenue has reopened after three years of drainage and sanitation works, expanding sewerage for about 12,000 families and aiming to cut flooding and health risks—though the long disruption also shows how delays hit fuel use, deliveries and business reliability. Agribusiness & Food Inputs: Malawi’s fertilizer scandal deepens after police arrested Agrizone chief Matius Bonongwe over 670 bags of suspected counterfeit NPK, allegedly linked to Mozambique-sourced inputs—another reminder that fake farm inputs can quickly undermine harvests and food security. Energy & Regional Industry: Mozambique’s LNG remains under scrutiny as environmental groups raise concerns about coral reef damage from pipeline dredging and the climate impact of the revived Mozambique LNG project. Cross-Border Trade & Logistics: Namibian truck operators are pulling drivers from South Africa ahead of June 30 anti-immigrant protests, suspending deliveries as xenophobia fears disrupt cross-border trade. Human Capital & Migration Pressure: South Africa’s June 30 anti-migrant mobilisation is driving thousands of Malawians and other nationals into camps and repatriation queues, with Mozambique-born workers among those facing processing and document hurdles. Industrial Policy & Investment: Africa’s energy investment is projected to reach $110bn in 2026, but the IEA notes the continent still captures only 3.3% of global energy capital, keeping industrial electrification and power reliability central to growth.

Mozambique LNG & offshore engineering: Modec has secured a contract to supply the internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG in Mozambique, a 3.6 mtpa project targeting first LNG in 2028, with Modec citing work on the earlier Coral Sul as the engineering baseline. Mozambique aviation restructuring: Mozambique’s transport secretary says patience is needed as Mozambique Airlines (LAM) is placed under management of other state firms (CFM, EMOSE and HCB) amid supplier-debt pressures after earlier rescue efforts. Mozambique food security pressures: A Mozambique-focused analysis warns that coastal livelihoods and fish supply are under strain from climate shocks and destructive fishing, with 2.7 million people needing urgent food assistance and child malnutrition still high. Climate entrepreneurship push (Mozambique): Village Capital’s ESEA programme has ended after backing 32 climate startups with $500k in grants across Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique and Tanzania, including adaptation and food security ventures. Regional energy context: The IEA projects Africa’s energy investment at $110bn in 2026, with Nigeria leading despite weaker upstream spending, while electrification momentum continues under World Bank-backed Mission 300.

FLNG Engineering: MODEC has won a key contract to supply the internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte floating LNG project in Mozambique, supporting safe weathervaning in cyclone-prone waters and building local capability for future regional work. Aviation Restructuring: Mozambique’s government is asking for patience as it restructures Mozambique Airlines (LAM), placing it under management of state firms including CFM, EMOSE and HCB amid supplier-debt pressures after past attempts to rescue the carrier. Maritime & Trade Finance: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Director of Regional Operations, with Mozambique included in the region covered by the Zimbabwe-based office. Food Security & Fisheries: Mozambique’s coastal communities remain central to food and jobs, but drought, cyclones and overfishing are worsening malnutrition risks, with El Niño raising the stakes for another potential food crisis. Public Health & Water Access: A new global map highlights how safe drinking water remains out of reach for large populations, underscoring the infrastructure gap Mozambique and the region still face.

Migration Crackdown Watch: South Africa’s June 30 anti-undocumented-migrant marches are being met with warnings of criminal and civil consequences for illegal transport blockades and intimidation, as the Inter-Ministerial Committee says the day will be “normal” and that everyone is entitled to constitutional protection. Repatriation Logistics: With pressure rising at temporary sites in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa is relocating the main repatriation processing hub from eThekwini to Limpopo near Musina, after more than 15,000 Malawians were processed for deportation/voluntary repatriation. Regional Trade Finance: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Director of Regional Operations, covering Mozambique and 12 other markets. Mozambique Energy/Industry Angle: Mozambique’s LNG push continues as Technip-led teams win major Coral Norte FLNG work, while the wider region debates energy sovereignty and industrialisation. Fuel Cost Pressure: Zimbabwe’s fuel pricing remains high despite falling global oil benchmarks, keeping costs elevated for households and industry.

Fuel Fix Fails in Mozambique: Fuel queues returned in Maputo and Matola despite ARENE reporting 110,000 tonnes of diesel and 40,000 tonnes of petrol in stock; the real bottleneck is getting fuel released from bonded warehouses or “financial hold” without bank guarantees, with distributors saying regulated prices don’t cover import costs and warning transport and food prices will rise. Cabo Delgado Security Update: In northern Mozambique, Islamic State fighters attacked the Namabo military position in Macomia district on 22 June, killing five soldiers, as the conflict continues to disrupt stability and business activity. Regional Finance for Trade: Afreximbank appointed Peter Adeshola Olowononi as Southern Africa Director of Regional Operations (effective May 1), aiming to deepen financing across 13 countries including Mozambique. Energy Costs and Unrest Risk: A Reuters report says oil price drops ease near-term inflation in emerging markets, but civil unrest risk remains as household damage from earlier energy shocks lingers. Migration Pressure in Southern Africa: South Africa is relocating Malawian repatriation processing from KwaZulu-Natal to Limpopo, while the IMC says June 30 will be a normal working day—amid ongoing anti-migrant tensions.

Clean Cooking Access: An IEA report says sub-Saharan Africa still has nearly 970m people without clean cooking fuels, with the gap set to exceed 1bn by 2027 as population growth outpaces progress. Energy Prices & Social Risk: Verisk Maplecroft warns that even with oil prices easing after a fragile U.S.-Iran truce, months of high energy costs have already strained household budgets and could keep unrest risks elevated. Mozambique Fuel Crunch: Fuel queues have returned in Maputo and Matola, despite stated stock levels—distributors say the real bottleneck is getting product into the market amid price controls, foreign-currency and bank-guarantee constraints. Cabo Delgado Investment Conditions: Cabo Delgado’s governor urges investors to follow FDS security protocols to keep industrial and agribusiness projects moving, linking stability to deals for agricultural and fishery supply. Industrialisation Push: President Chapo calls for economic self-reliance through higher production, industrialisation, jobs, and local value addition from minerals, oil and gas. Agribusiness & Security: At an industrialisation conference, MozCan Investments flagged about $2m for agriculture in Balama, with agreements under review for small and medium capacity building. Corruption Watch (Regional): SADC anti-corruption officials stress that corruption diverts resources from essential services and undermines development gains. Migration Pressure (Regional): South Africa’s migration crackdown continues to reshape labour and logistics corridors, with Mozambique cited among key destinations in trafficking findings. Tongaat Turnaround (Regional Agribusiness): South Africa’s IDC says it will deepen support for Tongaat Hulett’s restructuring to preserve value in a strategically important sugar supply chain.

Mozambique Investment & Security: Cabo Delgado governor Valige Tauabo urged investors to follow Defense and Security Forces protocols to keep industrial and agribusiness projects moving, citing the need for stability to attract buyers of farm and fishery products. Industrial Policy Push: President Daniel Francisco Chapo used Mozambique’s independence anniversary to call for economic self-reliance through higher production, industrialisation, local value addition in minerals/oil-and-gas, and more jobs for youth and women. Regional Governance & Corruption: SADC’s anti-corruption push highlighted how corruption diverts resources from essential services, with focus on procurement transparency, beneficial ownership, asset recovery and whistle-blower protection. Mozambique Logistics & Trade: SMSA Africa Logistics Group broke ground on a new head office, warehouse and workshop in Benoni, with services spanning cross-border logistics that include Mozambique. Cross-border Labour Risks: A Malawi study flagged South Africa and Mozambique as key destinations for Malawian youth labour trafficking, pointing to exploitation across agriculture, construction, manufacturing and retail. Agribusiness Input Integrity: Malawi police arrested two men over 670 bags of suspected counterfeit NPK fertiliser, with claims the supply came from Mozambique—now headed for lab checks. Climate Pressure on Food Systems: Southern Africa faces renewed El Niño-linked drought risk, with Mozambique listed among hotspots for crop and water shocks in 2026-27.

Mozambique LNG Build-Out: Eni’s Rovuma Venture has awarded a major EPCIC contract for the Coral Norte FLNG project offshore Mozambique, with JGC France (with Technip Energies and Samsung Heavy Industries) set to deliver about 3.6 mtpa LNG and target first LNG in 2028. Mozambique Security & Cabo Delgado: Mozambique’s National Defense and Security Council says Cabo Delgado’s fight against Islamist terrorism needs stronger defense force logistics and tougher action against drug trafficking networks. Mozambique Digital Payments: Visa signs a five-year strategic deal with FMBcapital Holdings across Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to scale secure digital payments and financial inclusion. Mozambique 5G Push: Mozambique plans to connect provincial capitals and special economic zones to 5G by 2027, aiming to boost connectivity for industry and services. Regional Integration Agenda: SADC is urged to accelerate liberalised skies and AI-enabled, climate-resilient infrastructure to speed up regional integration. Climate Risk for Food: El Niño risk is rising, with southern Africa including Mozambique flagged for drought pressure that could hit crops and prices in the 2026-27 season. South Africa Border Crackdown Spillover: Ahead of South Africa’s June 30 deadline, the Border Management Authority repatriated/deported over 13,000 foreign nationals via Beitbridge, Lebombo and OR Tambo, including about 1,000 Mozambicans.

FLNG for Mozambique: MODEC will supply a SOFEC internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG offshore Mozambique, adding 3.6m tonnes per year of LNG capacity, with first LNG targeted for 2028 and engineering/supply underway alongside the Technip Energies–JGC JV. Independence push: Mozambique President Daniel Chapo marked Independence Day by urging a “second independence” focused on economic independence through production, productivity and economic nationalism. Security and terrorism: Mozambique’s CNDS says strengthening the operational capacity of the Defense and Security Forces is crucial to curb islamist terrorism in Cabo Delgado, while also warning of rising violent crime linked to drugs and trafficking. Digital payments: Visa and FMBcapital Holdings signed a five-year digital payments deal covering subsidiaries across Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia and Zimbabwe to expand secure payments and financial inclusion. Food systems angle: Mozambique’s rice glut gets a gender-centered response focus, while broader regional coverage highlights how cereal procurement plans can stabilise farmer incomes. Regional context: South Africa tightens security ahead of 30 June anti-immigration protests, with Ramaphosa warning against attempts to destabilise the country.

FLNG Engineering Push: MODEC has won work to supply a SOFEC internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG offshore Mozambique, with first LNG targeted for 2028 and the project advancing after FID in Oct 2025 and hull launch in Jan 2026. Energy & Industrial Gas Risk: South Africa faces an emerging industrial gas supply crunch as ageing Mozambique-linked piped gas sources near end-of-life, raising urgency around import terminals and long-term supply deals. Port & Logistics Outlook: Grindrod reports improved cargo volumes at the Port of Maputo (+30% in five months to May) as weather disruptions ease, though Matola terminal performance lagged due to earlier conditions affecting magnetite supply. Digital Finance Expansion: FMB Capital Holdings and Visa signed a five-year partnership to scale digital payments across Southern Africa, including Mozambique, aiming to boost cross-border transactions and financial inclusion. Business Climate Debate: Mozambique’s CTA argues the country must stop exporting raw materials and build full industrial value chains from processing to packaging and export. Conservation Co-management Update: Mozambique lifted the suspension of Niassa Especial Reserve (REN) management, with authorities studying a new co-management model to better protect wildlife and communities.

Mozambique 5G Push: President Daniel Chapo says Mozambique will connect provincial capitals, special economic zones and dense areas to 5G by 2027, with $50m earmarked for 60 base stations and links for 300+ settlements. Digital Finance Boost: FMB Capital Holdings and Visa sign a five-year partnership to expand secure digital payments across Mozambique and the wider Southern Africa region, aiming to lift financial inclusion and cross-border transactions. FLNG Engineering for Rovuma: MODEC wins a contract to supply the SOFEC internal turret mooring system for Eni’s Coral Norte FLNG off Mozambique, targeting first LNG production in 2028. Industrialization & Agribusiness: ADIN is set to lead a $250m World Bank-funded Mozambique Community project in northern provinces, focusing on jobs, resilient infrastructure and links between mega-projects and local SMEs. Value-Added Debate: CTA argues Mozambique must stop exporting raw materials and build full industrial chains from processing to packaging and export of finished goods. Conservation Governance: Mozambique lifts the suspension on Niassa Special Reserve (REN) co-management, moving toward a new model aimed at reducing human-wildlife conflict while protecting fauna and flora. Regional Logistics Watch: Grindrod reports Maputo port volume up 30% in five months to May, with expectations that transport constraints will ease as weather disruptions fade.